Ratchet Christiaan's steady-climber fade (built 2026-07-16). The running daily max is a RATCHET - it can only go up - and this book bets NO on the rank-2/3 bucket sitting BELOW the leader in temperature, banking on the ratchet busting it. The raw pattern tested breakeven over 240 entries, so Ratchet trades only the two calibrated cells the test surfaced: entries 11:30am-1:30pm local (the late end of the 8am-1pm ramp, +1.8°F/hr median, which stalls at 2pm) and only STEADY climbs of 0.9-2.0°F/hr - sprints are already priced, crawls may never bust the bucket. NO cost ≤ 82c, flat $100, one entry per city per day, $5 minimum fillable win, NYC/Denver excluded (hourly stations). No stops (the Mercury churn autopsy), hold to settlement, cash out at 1c. Pre-registered ~+10c/contract on ~2 trades/day, judged on 150+ trades. Honest label: a thin-slice hypothesis from 19 days of data - it graduates into Mercury as an entry mode if it holds, or dies quietly if it was curve-fit.
SYSTEM HEALTH:
accuw_pull: stale (42062m since ok) AccuW data 701h old (stale)
total P&L
-$70
all-time · since Jul 17
P&L · 24h
+$34
1 trade closed
realized P&L
+$3
80 closed · since Jul 17
unrealized P&L
-$72
1 open · mark-to-market
cash available
$4,930
of $5,000 start · $73 in play
in play
$73
1 bets working · at risk
could win
$25
if every open position hits
win rate
64%
51 of 80 trades
open bets (1)
Today · 1 position -$73 net -$73 total $0
high today WILL NOT be
95-96°F 94.5 - 96.4
opened Aug 19 11:44am EDT 6h ago
resolves Aug 20 1:00am EDT +7h (late tonight)
win profit
+$25
1.37x payout
FORECAST
NWS
ACC
OPEN:
97°F
—
NOW:
97°F
—
1
95-96°F Yes 99% No 1% $39,866 vol
Buy
2
91-92°F Yes 0% No 100% $40,147 vol
Buy
3
97-98°F Yes 0% No 100% $40,536 vol
Buy
recently closed
Today · 1 closed · 1W 0L · +$34
Early exit · 1 closed · 1W 0L · +$34
Philadelphia · 88-89°F ended early
Aug 19 5:20pm EDT (today) · cash out · manual_buy
System exited because: Cash out
$100 → $134 back
+$33.58
▾
entered
Aug 19 12:28pm EDT (today)
exited
Aug 19 5:20pm EDT (today)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
88.0°F 89.5°F 85.6°F — — — 88.0°F exit
88.0°F 89.1°F 86.1°F — 88.7°F 89.2°F 88.2°F now
88.0°F 89.1°F 86.1°F — 88.7°F 89.2°F 88.2°F
recorded high · PHL Philadelphia
90.0°F
rounds to 90°F · outside bucket
exit math
ratchet cash99: NO locked, bucket busted. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
2 days ago · 3 closed · 2W 1L · -$94
Close at settlement · 1 closed · 0W 1L · -$102
Miami · 94-95°F
Aug 18 7:26am EDT (yesterday) · LOSS · manual_buy
System exited because: Bucket missed at settlement.
$100 → $0 back
-$101.94
▾
entered
Aug 17 12:24pm EDT (2d ago)
exited
Aug 18 7:26am EDT (yesterday)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
96.0°F 98.6°F 92.6°F — — — 96.0°F exit
— 98.6°F 92.6°F — 95.6°F 92.7°F 94.9°F now
— 98.6°F 92.6°F — 95.6°F 92.7°F 94.9°F
recorded high · Miami International
95.0°F
rounds to 95°F · in bucket
Early exit · 2 closed · 2W 0L · +$8
Philadelphia · 87-88°F ended early
Aug 17 5:24pm EDT (2d ago) · cash out · manual_buy
System exited because: Cash out
$12 → $17 back
+$4.58
▾
entered
Aug 17 12:40pm EDT (2d ago)
exited
Aug 17 5:24pm EDT (2d ago)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
88.0°F 89.3°F 85.1°F — — — 88.0°F exit
88.0°F 89.3°F 85.1°F — 91.3°F 85.7°F 87.9°F now
— 89.3°F 85.1°F — 91.3°F 87.5°F 88.3°F
recorded high · PHL Philadelphia
87.0°F
rounds to 87°F · in bucket
exit math
ratchet cash99: NO locked, bucket busted. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
Washington DC · 90-91°F ended early
Aug 17 1:56pm EDT (2d ago) · cash out · manual_buy
System exited because: Cash out
$7 → $10 back
+$3.28
▾
entered
Aug 17 12:44pm EDT (2d ago)
exited
Aug 17 1:56pm EDT (2d ago)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
90.0°F 92.1°F 92.5°F — — — 90.0°F exit
90.0°F 92.1°F 92.5°F — 94.0°F 89.2°F 91.6°F now
— 92.1°F 92.5°F — 94.0°F 90.6°F 92.3°F
recorded high · Washington Reagan (KDCA)
93.0°F
rounds to 93°F · outside bucket
exit math
ratchet cash99: NO locked, bucket busted. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
4 days ago · 3 closed · 2W 1L · +$27
Close at settlement · 1 closed · 0W 1L · -$11
Miami · 92-93°F
Aug 16 12:26pm EDT (3d ago) · LOSS · manual_buy
System exited because: Bucket missed at settlement.
$11 → $0 back
-$11.24
▾
entered
Aug 15 12:40pm EDT (4d ago)
exited
Aug 16 12:26pm EDT (3d ago)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
92.0°F 93.5°F 91.1°F — — — 92.0°F exit
— 95.2°F 91.9°F — 94.1°F 91.1°F 93.1°F now
— 95.2°F 91.9°F — 94.1°F 91.1°F 93.1°F
recorded high · Miami International
93.0°F
rounds to 93°F · in bucket
Early exit · 2 closed · 2W 0L · +$38
Philadelphia · 87-88°F ended early
Aug 15 2:36pm EDT (4d ago) · cash out · manual_buy
System exited because: Cash out
$100 → $134 back
+$33.58
▾
entered
Aug 15 11:48am EDT (4d ago)
exited
Aug 15 2:36pm EDT (4d ago)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
88.0°F 90.4°F 91.4°F — — — 88.0°F exit
88.0°F 90.5°F 91.4°F — 86.6°F 87.5°F 88.8°F now
— 89.8°F 89.0°F — 88.5°F 87.9°F —
recorded high · PHL Philadelphia
90.0°F
rounds to 90°F · outside bucket
exit math
ratchet cash99: NO locked, bucket busted. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
Atlanta · 93-94°F ended early
Aug 15 1:28pm EDT (4d ago) · cash out · manual_buy
System exited because: Cash out
$12 → $17 back
+$4.42
▾
entered
Aug 15 11:52am EDT (4d ago)
exited
Aug 15 1:28pm EDT (4d ago)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
94.0°F 96.9°F 94.5°F — — — 94.0°F exit
94.0°F 96.9°F 94.5°F — 93.0°F 93.1°F 94.3°F now
— 96.9°F 92.1°F — 94.2°F 94.7°F 94.5°F
recorded high · Atlanta (KATL)
96.0°F
rounds to 96°F · outside bucket
exit math
ratchet cash99: NO locked, bucket busted. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
5 days ago · 3 closed · 3W 0L · +$55
Early exit · 3 closed · 3W 0L · +$55
Philadelphia · 88-89°F ended early
Aug 14 5:20pm EDT (5d ago) · cash out · manual_buy
System exited because: Cash out
$18 → $23 back
+$4.92
▾
entered
Aug 14 11:48am EDT (5d ago)
exited
Aug 14 5:20pm EDT (5d ago)
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
NWS GFS ECMWF AccuW NAM HRRR CONS
entry
89.0°F 90.2°F 90.0°F — — — 89.0°F exit
89.0°F 90.7°F 87.8°F — 88.8°F 87.6°F 88.8°F now
— 90.5°F 86.5°F — 89.0°F 88.1°F 88.5°F
recorded high · PHL Philadelphia
90.0°F
rounds to 90°F · outside bucket
exit math
ratchet cash99: NO locked, bucket busted. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970