BELLWETHER SKYGOD Oct 18 4:17pm · paper · $5,000 bankroll · Mercury

Mercury SkyGod 3: the obs-race book, born from Christiaan's manual scalping. The thermometer is the signal: when the settlement station's running max climbs to within 2.5°F of a bucket's top with the temp still rising (≥+1°F/hr), that bucket is about to die - Mercury buys NO, flat $500 to real depth, one open position per city, up to 3 entries a day (laddering up the buckets on a big climb). REDESIGNED 2026-07-14 after the day-1 churn autopsy: entry now requires YES bid ≥ 24c (NO ≤ 76c) - the 161-entry backtest showed that pocket won 90% and +14.9c/contract held to settlement, while paying 80c+ for near-dead buckets was -EV at any exit style. And exits are GONE: every stop tested (price stops, obs-stall stops) reduced EV - the obs stop fired on normal midday plateaus and threw away winners (day 1 Atlanta: stops kept +$4 of a ~+$135 hold). Mercury now holds to settlement, with exactly one exception: cash out when YES hits 1c to free the slot. Expect ~1 full loss per ~10 trades - that is the priced-in cost of not being churned out of the other 9. Gates: $5 minimum fillable win, NYC/Denver excluded (hourly stations), obs fresher than 20 min. Minute data from the Mercury logger, which also records order-book depth every minute.