Mercury SkyGod 3: the obs-race book, born from Christiaan's manual scalping. The thermometer is the signal: when the settlement station's running max climbs to within 2.5°F of a bucket's top with the temp still rising (≥+1°F/hr), that bucket is about to die - Mercury buys NO, flat $500 to real depth, one open position per city, up to 3 entries a day (laddering up the buckets on a big climb). REDESIGNED 2026-07-14 after the day-1 churn autopsy: entry now requires YES bid ≥ 24c (NO ≤ 76c) - the 161-entry backtest showed that pocket won 90% and +14.9c/contract held to settlement, while paying 80c+ for near-dead buckets was -EV at any exit style. And exits are GONE: every stop tested (price stops, obs-stall stops) reduced EV - the obs stop fired on normal midday plateaus and threw away winners (day 1 Atlanta: stops kept +$4 of a ~+$135 hold). Mercury now holds to settlement, with exactly one exception: cash out when YES hits 1c to free the slot. Expect ~1 full loss per ~10 trades - that is the priced-in cost of not being churned out of the other 9. Gates: $5 minimum fillable win, NYC/Denver excluded (hourly stations), obs fresher than 20 min. Minute data from the Mercury logger, which also records order-book depth every minute.
total P&L
+$28
all-time · since Jul 14
P&L · 24h
+$184
2 trades closed
realized P&L
+$28
117 closed · since Jul 14
unrealized P&L
+$0
0 open · mark-to-market
cash available
$5,028
of $5,000 start · $0 in play
in play
$0
0 bets working · at risk
could win
$0
if every open position hits
win rate
25%
29 of 117 trades
open bets (0)
No open bets right now. The scanner runs every 30 minutes.
recently closed
Today · 1 closed · 1W 0L · +$178
Early exit · 1 closed · 1W 0L · +$178
Philadelphia · 88-89°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$177.62
▾
Philadelphia · 88-89°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$177.62
▾
entered
Aug 19 12:28pm EDT (today)
exited
Aug 19 5:18pm EDT (today)
resolves
Aug 19, 2026
entry price
70.4¢ (1.42x)
exit price
97.0¢
peak (HWM)
93.0¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 88.0°F | 89.5°F | 85.6°F | — | — | — | 88.0°F |
| exit | 88.0°F | 89.1°F | 86.1°F | — | 88.7°F | 89.2°F | 88.2°F |
| now | 88.0°F | 89.1°F | 86.1°F | — | 88.7°F | 89.2°F | 88.2°F |
recorded high · PHL Philadelphia
90.0°F
exit math
mercury cash99: NO locked, freeing the slot. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
Yesterday · 2 closed · 1W 1L · +$5
Early exit · 2 closed · 1W 1L · +$5
Washington DC · 90-91°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$6.55
▾
Washington DC · 90-91°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$6.55
▾
entered
Aug 18 4:36pm EDT (yesterday)
exited
Aug 18 5:58pm EDT (yesterday)
resolves
Aug 18, 2026
entry price
73.9¢ (1.35x)
exit price
97.0¢
peak (HWM)
90.5¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 88.0°F | 89.7°F | 87.2°F | — | — | — | 88.0°F |
| exit | 88.0°F | 89.7°F | 87.2°F | — | 89.4°F | 87.6°F | 88.4°F |
| now | — | 87.9°F | 86.3°F | — | 89.4°F | 88.7°F | 88.1°F |
recorded high · Washington Reagan (KDCA)
89.6°F
exit math
mercury cash99: NO locked, freeing the slot. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
Philadelphia · 88-89°F ended early
System exited because: Dust unwind
-$1.40
▾
Philadelphia · 88-89°F ended early
System exited because: Dust unwind
-$1.40
▾
entered
Aug 18 5:38pm EDT (yesterday)
exited
Aug 18 5:38pm EDT (yesterday)
resolves
Aug 18, 2026
entry price
74.9¢ (1.34x)
exit price
68.6¢
peak (HWM)
74.9¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 87.0°F | 90.9°F | 84.6°F | — | — | — | 87.0°F |
| exit | 87.0°F | 90.9°F | 84.6°F | — | 87.1°F | 85.1°F | 86.9°F |
| now | — | 90.4°F | 85.6°F | — | 87.1°F | 86.1°F | 87.3°F |
recorded high · PHL Philadelphia
87.0°F
exit math
filled win $3.62 < $5 minimum - freeing the slot. bid=0.260 ask=0.300 -> exit=0.686
2 days ago · 2 closed · 1W 1L · +$6
Early exit · 2 closed · 1W 1L · +$6
Washington DC · 90-91°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$6.48
▾
Washington DC · 90-91°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$6.48
▾
entered
Aug 17 1:04pm EDT (2d ago)
exited
Aug 17 1:54pm EDT (2d ago)
resolves
Aug 17, 2026
entry price
76.9¢ (1.30x)
exit price
97.0¢
peak (HWM)
79.0¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 90.0°F | 92.1°F | 92.5°F | — | — | — | 90.0°F |
| exit | 90.0°F | 92.1°F | 92.5°F | — | 94.0°F | 89.2°F | 91.6°F |
| now | — | 92.1°F | 92.5°F | — | 94.0°F | 90.6°F | 92.3°F |
recorded high · Washington Reagan (KDCA)
93.0°F
exit math
mercury cash99: NO locked, freeing the slot. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
Washington DC · 90-91°F ended early
System exited because: Dust unwind
-$0.33
▾
Washington DC · 90-91°F ended early
System exited because: Dust unwind
-$0.33
▾
entered
Aug 17 12:54pm EDT (2d ago)
exited
Aug 17 12:54pm EDT (2d ago)
resolves
Aug 17, 2026
entry price
77.8¢ (1.28x)
exit price
70.6¢
peak (HWM)
77.8¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 90.0°F | 92.1°F | 92.5°F | — | — | — | 90.0°F |
| exit | 90.0°F | 92.1°F | 92.5°F | — | 94.0°F | 88.9°F | 91.5°F |
| now | — | 92.1°F | 92.5°F | — | 94.0°F | 90.6°F | 92.3°F |
recorded high · Washington Reagan (KDCA)
93.0°F
exit math
filled win $0.69 < $5 minimum - freeing the slot. bid=0.240 ask=0.280 -> exit=0.706
3 days ago · 1 closed · 1W 0L · +$9
Early exit · 1 closed · 1W 0L · +$9
Boston · 79-80°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$8.68
▾
Boston · 79-80°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$8.68
▾
entered
Aug 16 2:18pm EDT (3d ago)
exited
Aug 16 7:58pm EDT (3d ago)
resolves
Aug 16, 2026
entry price
71.9¢ (1.39x)
exit price
97.0¢
peak (HWM)
82.0¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 79.0°F | 77.6°F | 80.1°F | — | — | — | 79.0°F |
| exit | — | 77.6°F | 80.7°F | — | 79.9°F | 79.4°F | — |
| now | — | 77.7°F | 80.5°F | — | 79.9°F | 79.4°F | 79.4°F |
recorded high · Boston Logan (KBOS)
81.0°F
exit math
mercury cash99: NO locked, freeing the slot. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
4 days ago · 2 closed · 2W 0L · +$163
Early exit · 2 closed · 2W 0L · +$163
San Antonio · 101-102°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$7.25
▾
San Antonio · 101-102°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$7.25
▾
entered
Aug 15 4:26pm CDT (4d ago)
exited
Aug 15 6:52pm CDT (4d ago)
resolves
Aug 15, 2026
entry price
75.9¢ (1.32x)
exit price
97.0¢
peak (HWM)
95.5¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 99.0°F | 102.6°F | 98.4°F | — | — | — | 99.0°F |
| exit | — | 102.6°F | 98.4°F | — | 100.3°F | 100.6°F | — |
| now | — | 101.1°F | 98.2°F | — | 100.3°F | 101.1°F | 100.2°F |
recorded high · San Antonio (KSAT)
100.0°F
exit math
mercury cash99: NO locked, freeing the slot. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
Philadelphia · 87-88°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$155.72
▾
Philadelphia · 87-88°F ended early
System exited because: Cash out
+$155.72
▾
entered
Aug 15 1:42pm EDT (4d ago)
exited
Aug 15 2:36pm EDT (4d ago)
resolves
Aug 15, 2026
entry price
70.9¢ (1.41x)
exit price
97.0¢
peak (HWM)
89.0¢
forecasts (entry / exit / now)
| NWS | GFS | ECMWF | AccuW | NAM | HRRR | CONS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry | 88.0°F | 90.4°F | 91.4°F | — | — | — | 88.0°F |
| exit | 88.0°F | 90.5°F | 91.4°F | — | 86.6°F | 87.5°F | 88.8°F |
| now | — | 89.8°F | 89.0°F | — | 88.5°F | 87.9°F | — |
recorded high · PHL Philadelphia
90.0°F
exit math
mercury cash99: NO locked, freeing the slot. bid=0.000 ask=0.010 -> exit=0.970
Bellwether SkyGod · auto-refreshes every 60 seconds · last loaded Aug 19 2:50pm