How consistently NWS predicts each city's daily high, vs the settled actual.
MAE = avg miss (°F), exact = landed in the settling integer, within 1°F = off by ≤1.
Sorted most-consistent first. Caveat: still thin (forecasts only logged from Jun 27) - low n means luck, not skill. Becomes meaningful around 10-15 settled days per city; this page updates itself as data lands.
cities
20
1040 forecast/actual pairs
overall MAE
1.46 °F
avg miss, all cities
exact bucket
22%
landed the settling integer
within 1°F
60%
off by a degree or less
| # | City | n | MAE °F | bias | exact | within 1°F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix | 52 | 1.00 | -0.2 | 37% | 79% |
| 2 | Miami | 52 | 1.02 | -0.4 | 29% | 77% |
| 3 | Chicago | 52 | 1.10 | -0.7 | 29% | 73% |
| 4 | Dallas | 52 | 1.13 | -0.1 | 29% | 75% |
| 5 | Philadelphia | 52 | 1.14 | -0.2 | 38% | 67% |
| 6 | Denver | 52 | 1.23 | -0.1 | 25% | 69% |
| 7 | Austin | 52 | 1.29 | -1.0 | 17% | 62% |
| 8 | Houston | 52 | 1.38 | +0.7 | 19% | 60% |
| 9 | Atlanta | 52 | 1.38 | -0.4 | 21% | 62% |
| 10 | Las Vegas | 52 | 1.38 | +0.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 11 | Minneapolis | 52 | 1.42 | -0.0 | 25% | 65% |
| 12 | San Antonio | 52 | 1.42 | +0.0 | 15% | 60% |
| 13 | New Orleans | 52 | 1.44 | +0.4 | 19% | 60% |
| 14 | Washington DC | 52 | 1.54 | -0.4 | 12% | 58% |
| 15 | Oklahoma City | 52 | 1.60 | -0.1 | 17% | 46% |
| 16 | Boston | 52 | 1.73 | -0.7 | 23% | 54% |
| 17 | Los Angeles | 52 | 1.79 | +0.5 | 19% | 52% |
| 18 | NYC | 52 | 1.90 | +0.9 | 13% | 38% |
| 19 | Seattle | 52 | 2.02 | +0.5 | 17% | 44% |
| 20 | San Francisco | 52 | 2.31 | +0.9 | 10% | 40% |
Green MAE ≤1°F · amber ≤2°F · red >2°F. bias + = NWS runs hot, − = runs cold.
Feeds the per-city confidence weight for Chalk: stake more where NWS is reliable, less where it isn't.
Feeds the per-city confidence weight for Chalk: stake more where NWS is reliable, less where it isn't.