How consistently NWS predicts each city's daily high, vs the settled actual.
MAE = avg miss (°F), exact = landed in the settling integer, within 1°F = off by ≤1.
Sorted most-consistent first. Caveat: still thin (forecasts only logged from Jun 27) - low n means luck, not skill. Becomes meaningful around 10-15 settled days per city; this page updates itself as data lands.
cities
20
2240 forecast/actual pairs
overall MAE
1.51 °F
avg miss, all cities
exact bucket
21%
landed the settling integer
within 1°F
60%
off by a degree or less
| # | City | n | MAE °F | bias | exact | within 1°F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Vegas | 112 | 1.10 | +0.3 | 35% | 77% |
| 2 | Chicago | 112 | 1.14 | -0.7 | 24% | 71% |
| 3 | Phoenix | 112 | 1.16 | -0.4 | 33% | 70% |
| 4 | Dallas | 112 | 1.19 | -0.2 | 29% | 71% |
| 5 | New Orleans | 112 | 1.21 | +0.1 | 26% | 66% |
| 6 | Miami | 112 | 1.23 | -0.5 | 26% | 68% |
| 7 | Denver | 112 | 1.28 | -0.0 | 27% | 65% |
| 8 | Houston | 112 | 1.29 | +0.3 | 26% | 67% |
| 9 | San Antonio | 112 | 1.32 | -0.1 | 18% | 66% |
| 10 | Philadelphia | 112 | 1.34 | -0.4 | 28% | 62% |
| 11 | Austin | 112 | 1.38 | -0.8 | 18% | 62% |
| 12 | Minneapolis | 112 | 1.43 | -0.3 | 22% | 62% |
| 13 | Atlanta | 112 | 1.46 | +0.3 | 15% | 62% |
| 14 | Washington DC | 112 | 1.61 | -0.6 | 15% | 60% |
| 15 | NYC | 112 | 1.70 | +1.0 | 12% | 49% |
| 16 | Oklahoma City | 112 | 1.81 | -0.5 | 16% | 45% |
| 17 | Boston | 112 | 1.98 | -1.0 | 20% | 49% |
| 18 | Seattle | 112 | 2.01 | +0.1 | 14% | 45% |
| 19 | Los Angeles | 112 | 2.02 | +0.1 | 15% | 46% |
| 20 | San Francisco | 112 | 2.45 | +0.7 | 8% | 36% |
Green MAE ≤1°F · amber ≤2°F · red >2°F. bias + = NWS runs hot, − = runs cold.
Feeds the per-city confidence weight for Chalk: stake more where NWS is reliable, less where it isn't.
Feeds the per-city confidence weight for Chalk: stake more where NWS is reliable, less where it isn't.