BELLWETHER SKYGOD Oct 18 4:17pm · paper · $5,000 bankroll · Heretic

Heretic Bet AGAINST the gospel. The 2026-07-11 edge audit found the crowd anchors on the public NWS number: in the morning the bucket holding the rounded NWS forecast trades ~6c RICH (wins ~40% priced ~46%), and the overpricing lives almost entirely on days the weather models DISAGREE with each other. So between 9 and 11:59am each city's local time, when the 5-model spread (NWS/HRRR/NAM/GFS/ECMWF, std of their highs) is at least 1.5°F, Heretic buys NO on the NWS bucket - flat $50, one entry per city per day, held to settlement. When the models agree it stands down: an agreed forecast is fairly priced and there is nothing to fade. Pre-registered expectation ~+5c/contract; judge after 250+ trades. Every one of our old losing books was the mirror of this trade (they BOUGHT the NWS bucket).